Effectiveness of national and regional sire evaluations in predicting future-daughter milk yield.

National and regional bull evaluations were compared for ability to predict standardized milk yield of future daughters. Correlations between evaluations and first-, second-, and third-parity yields of future daughters were calculated within herd-year-month group. Mean correlations with predicted yield of future daughters across the United States were higher for national (0.109, 0.111, and 0.082 for first, second, and third parities, respectively) than for Northeast (0.098, 0.085, and 0.061) Holstein evaluations; corresponding correlations for future Northeast daughters were similar. Bull evaluations based on the first 5 parities of daughters that first calved through 1991 from either California, North Central, Northeast, or Southeast regions as well as from the entire United States were compared with standardized milk yields of daughters that calved later. Correlations with first-, second-, and third-parity yields of future daughters were higher (from 0.001 to 0.011) for national than for regional evaluations. National evaluations were better predictors of future-daughter yield, especially for California and the Southeast. Evaluations based on only first parity were slightly better than those based on the first 5 parities in predicting first-parity yield for 3 of 4 regions but were far less useful in predicting second-or third-parity yield regardless of region. Regional evaluations included fewer bulls because of limited numbers of daughters in each region. The top 100 bulls for genetic merit for milk yield based on regional rankings were inferior to the top 100 bulls based on national ranking by 25 to 173 kg. Reliance on regional rather than national evaluations would reduce current US genetic gains.